Notable Super Bowl betting trends


Super Bowl LV is set, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs ready to battle Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa, Florida, on Feb. 7. Here are some betting nuggets to get you prepared for the big game.


Super Bowl betting trends to know

  • Favorites have covered two straight Super Bowls and three of the last four. Overall, favorites are 27-25-2.

  • The last two Super Bowls went under the total. There have been 10 overs and 10 unders in the last 20 Super Bowls, and it’s 26-26-1 overall (no total for Super Bowl I).

  • AFC teams have won and covered five of the last six Super Bowls.

  • The favored team is 35-19 straight up in the 54 Super Bowls.

  • A total of 57 would be the second-highest closing Super Bowl total ever. Super Bowl LVI closed at 58 and went over in OT.

  • The Chiefs enter 8-10 ATS on the season, the fifth team to advance to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (only the 2012 Ravens went on to win).

  • Tom Brady is 4-5 ATS and 6-3 outright in his career in the Super Bowl. He has been an underdog once, in his first Super Bowl vs. the Rams. (Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett, with two each).

  • Only two quarterbacks have won multiple Super Bowls as an underdog: Eli Manning and Jim Plunkett (two each).

  • This will be the first time Brady is an underdog in three straight starts since 2002-03 and the first time in a single season since 2001. It will snap Brady’s 308-game streak without being an underdog in three consecutive starts. The next longest streak in the Super Bowl era is 201 by Aaron Rodgers (active streak).

  • This will be the eighth straight playoff game Mahomes is favored in. That will break a tie with Kurt Warner for the most consecutive playoff games favored in to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.

  • Mahomes is 27-13-1 ATS when he is not a double-digit favorite (6-0-1 ATS as underdog, 21-13 ATS as single-digit favorite).

WR 22
RB 21
TE 5
QB 3
CB 2
Defense 1

TD 26
FG 25
Safety 3

  • Coin toss: Heads 25, tails 29

  • Tampa Bay closed as a 4-point underdog in its only other Super Bowl appearance (2002). It won outright. If the Bucs close as an underdog, they will look to join the Giants (3), Raiders (2), Broncos (2) and Washington (2) as the only teams to win multiple Super Bowls as an underdog.

  • Mahomes has the fourth-highest cover percentage (61.5%) of any QB in the Super Bowl era; Brady (59.5%) is eighth.

  • Brady is 41-17-1 ATS in his career as an underdog and 36-23 outright as an underdog, both best in the Super Bowl era

  • Since 2015, the under is 22-9 in Brady starts with a total in the 50s (16-6 since 2017).

  • The Chiefs are the fifth team to reach Super Bowl with a losing ATS record (8-10). Only the 2012 Ravens went on to win it all.

  • Andy Reid is 5-5 ATS with Kansas City with at least 13 days between games. He was 13-4 ATS with Philadelphia in that situation.

  • Since 2018, Brady has covered all five games with at least 13 days between games, including the Week 14 game this season.

  • The spread has not come into play in the last 11 Super Bowls. Winners are 46-6-2 ATS. The last team to win but not cover was Pittsburgh in 2008 over Arizona (-7, won by 4).

  • The Chiefs are the fifth straight preseason favorite (+400) to reach the Super Bowl. Three of the last four won the game.

  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Kansas City is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, though it did cover in its last game.

  • Tampa Bay has covered the last four times it has been an underdog.

  • The Buccaneers have covered each of the last three meetings, including their Week 12 meeting this season. In that game, Kansas City was a 3.5-point favorite on the road. Now Kansas City is a 3-point favorite in that building, though it is technically a neutral site.

ESPN’s Stats & Information group contributed to this story.



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